There is an opinion that Russia will only win from global warming, which is nothing but a shallow judgment. Climate change is not only about rising temperatures. Extreme droughts, heavy precipitation, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, and wildfires are already our current reality. Climate change will make them worse. Here are some examples.
Droughts, floods, wildfires, hurricanes
We hear more and more news reports about a bus that has drowned in a giant puddle in Moscow or a car swept out to sea in Sochi. Accidents like this are no joke but a very real and frightening trend.
If you live in Krasnodar or the western part of Russia, you will experience heat waves more often, when abnormal high temperatures persist for five days or more. In the Far East, there will be more floods, and Siberia will face an increase in wildfire frequency. St Petersburg should prepare for even stronger winds, hurricanes, rain storms and resultant floods.
Unstable weather and climate events uncommon for these territories will become more frequent.
Agriculture
Scientists forecast that in the nearest 30–50 years, the southern part of European Russia will be most affected by climate change. Winters will shorten while summers will get longer and drier. Some territories may become unsuitable for agriculture.
Power industry
Hotter summers will increase electricity consumption in Russia. The load on the power system will intensify during summers due to greater usage of air conditioners. The cooling efficiency of nuclear and thermal power plants will reduce as the temperature of cooling water in reservoirs rises.
Some estimates suggest that the average annual water inflow to some HPP reservoirs will rise, i.e., their generation output may get higher. However, greater shifts in precipitation patterns will require a more thorough approach to managing the HPP operating parameters: utilization rates may have to be limited during the periods when meltwater is already scarce and the rain season has not started yet.
Housing and utilities
Due to climate change, the heating season in the Central Federal District will shorten by 15–20 days. Yet, savings on heat supply are unlikely: the generation infrastructure won't tolerate sharp temperature jumps driving elevated demand for air conditioning, leading to increased load on power grids and higher electric bills.
Forests
During periods of heat and drought, wildfires will occur more often. Coniferous species occupying 76% of forest area are particularly vulnerable to fire.
Northern regions
Those who live in the northern part of Russia will experience the consequence of climate change literally under their feet. Permafrost thaw will cause damage to the municipal and industrial infrastructure constructed over a permafrost base in the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts, Yakutia, Chukotka and northern part of the Krasnoyarsk Territory.
That is why the benefits of global warming will always be linked to even greater consequences that may potentially nullify all positive effects. We need to answer a different question: how can Russia successfully adapt to climate change and at the same time minimize risks and maximize benefits?
Read Nornickel’s 2024 Climate Report to find out more about climate change and its impact on Russia's economy.